Evaluating Impact Using Time-Series Data

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Documents

  • Hannah S. Wauchope
  • Tatsuya Amano
  • Geldmann, Jonas
  • Alison Johnston
  • Benno I. Simmons
  • William J. Sutherland
  • Julia P.G. Jones
Humanity's impact on the environment is increasing, as are strategies to conserve biodiversity, but a lack of understanding about how interventions affect ecological and conservation outcomes hampers decision-making. Time series are often used to assess impacts, but ecologists tend to compare average values from before to after an impact; overlooking the potential for the intervention to elicit a change in trend. Without methods that allow for a range of responses, erroneous conclusions can be drawn, especially for large, multi-time-series datasets, which are increasingly available. Drawing on literature in other disciplines and pioneering work in ecology, we present a standardised framework to robustly assesses how interventions, like natural disasters or conservation policies, affect ecological time series.
Original languageEnglish
JournalTrends in Ecology and Evolution
Volume36
Issue number3
Pages (from-to)196-205
ISSN0169-5347
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

    Research areas

  • before-after-control-intervention, causal inference, counterfactual, difference in differences, interrupted time series, longitudinal data

ID: 256077581