Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Standard

Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. / Fordham, Damien A.; Brown, Stuart C.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit; Brook, Barry W.; Haythorne, Sean; Manica, Andrea; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Austin, Jeremy J.; Blonder, Benjamin; Pilowsky, Julia; Rahbek, Carsten; Nogues-Bravo, David.

In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2021, p. 125-137.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Fordham, DA, Brown, SC, Akçakaya, HR, Brook, BW, Haythorne, S, Manica, A, Shoemaker, KT, Austin, JJ, Blonder, B, Pilowsky, J, Rahbek, C & Nogues-Bravo, D 2021, 'Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation', Ecology Letters, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 125-137. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13911

APA

Fordham, D. A., Brown, S. C., Akçakaya, H. R., Brook, B. W., Haythorne, S., Manica, A., Shoemaker, K. T., Austin, J. J., Blonder, B., Pilowsky, J., Rahbek, C., & Nogues-Bravo, D. (2021). Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. Ecology Letters, 25(1), 125-137. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13911

Vancouver

Fordham DA, Brown SC, Akçakaya HR, Brook BW, Haythorne S, Manica A et al. Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. Ecology Letters. 2021;25(1):125-137. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13911

Author

Fordham, Damien A. ; Brown, Stuart C. ; Akçakaya, H. Reşit ; Brook, Barry W. ; Haythorne, Sean ; Manica, Andrea ; Shoemaker, Kevin T. ; Austin, Jeremy J. ; Blonder, Benjamin ; Pilowsky, Julia ; Rahbek, Carsten ; Nogues-Bravo, David. / Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. In: Ecology Letters. 2021 ; Vol. 25, No. 1. pp. 125-137.

Bibtex

@article{cadecedb101647d7b343577ed0944447,
title = "Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation",
abstract = "Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.",
keywords = "climate change, ecological process, extinction dynamics, mechanistic model, megafauna, metapopulation, Pleistocene-Holocene transition, population model, range dynamics, synergistic threats",
author = "Fordham, {Damien A.} and Brown, {Stuart C.} and Ak{\c c}akaya, {H. Re{\c s}it} and Brook, {Barry W.} and Sean Haythorne and Andrea Manica and Shoemaker, {Kevin T.} and Austin, {Jeremy J.} and Benjamin Blonder and Julia Pilowsky and Carsten Rahbek and David Nogues-Bravo",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",
year = "2021",
doi = "10.1111/ele.13911",
language = "English",
volume = "25",
pages = "125--137",
journal = "Ecology Letters",
issn = "1461-023X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

AU - Fordham, Damien A.

AU - Brown, Stuart C.

AU - Akçakaya, H. Reşit

AU - Brook, Barry W.

AU - Haythorne, Sean

AU - Manica, Andrea

AU - Shoemaker, Kevin T.

AU - Austin, Jeremy J.

AU - Blonder, Benjamin

AU - Pilowsky, Julia

AU - Rahbek, Carsten

AU - Nogues-Bravo, David

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

AB - Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

KW - climate change

KW - ecological process

KW - extinction dynamics

KW - mechanistic model

KW - megafauna

KW - metapopulation

KW - Pleistocene-Holocene transition

KW - population model

KW - range dynamics

KW - synergistic threats

U2 - 10.1111/ele.13911

DO - 10.1111/ele.13911

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34738712

AN - SCOPUS:85118482950

VL - 25

SP - 125

EP - 137

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

SN - 1461-023X

IS - 1

ER -

ID: 285249650