Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia
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Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia. / Canteri, Elisabetta; Brown, Stuart C.; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Heller, Rasmus; Nogués-Bravo, David; Fordham, Damien A.
In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 28, No. 22, 2022, p. 6602-6617.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia
AU - Canteri, Elisabetta
AU - Brown, Stuart C.
AU - Schmidt, Niels Martin
AU - Heller, Rasmus
AU - Nogués-Bravo, David
AU - Fordham, Damien A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process-explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process-explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species-specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process-explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process-explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.
AB - Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process-explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process-explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species-specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process-explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process-explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.
KW - Arctic
KW - climate change
KW - exploitation
KW - extinction dynamics
KW - mechanistic model
KW - megafauna
KW - range dynamics
KW - spatially explicit population model
U2 - 10.1111/gcb.16375
DO - 10.1111/gcb.16375
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 36031712
AN - SCOPUS:85136607317
VL - 28
SP - 6602
EP - 6617
JO - Global Change Biology
JF - Global Change Biology
SN - 1354-1013
IS - 22
ER -
ID: 318806399