Natural hazards in Australia: droughts

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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Natural hazards in Australia : droughts. / Kiem, Anthony S.; Johnson, Fiona; Westra, Seth; van Dijk, Albert; Evans, Jason P.; O’Donnell, Alison; Rouillard, Alexandra; Barr, Cameron; Tyler, Jonathan; Thyer, Mark; Jakob, Doerte; Woldemeskel, Fitsum; Sivakumar, Bellie; Mehrotra, Raj.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 139, No. 1, 2016, p. 37–54.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Kiem, AS, Johnson, F, Westra, S, van Dijk, A, Evans, JP, O’Donnell, A, Rouillard, A, Barr, C, Tyler, J, Thyer, M, Jakob, D, Woldemeskel, F, Sivakumar, B & Mehrotra, R 2016, 'Natural hazards in Australia: droughts', Climatic Change, vol. 139, no. 1, pp. 37–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7

APA

Kiem, A. S., Johnson, F., Westra, S., van Dijk, A., Evans, J. P., O’Donnell, A., Rouillard, A., Barr, C., Tyler, J., Thyer, M., Jakob, D., Woldemeskel, F., Sivakumar, B., & Mehrotra, R. (2016). Natural hazards in Australia: droughts. Climatic Change, 139(1), 37–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7

Vancouver

Kiem AS, Johnson F, Westra S, van Dijk A, Evans JP, O’Donnell A et al. Natural hazards in Australia: droughts. Climatic Change. 2016;139(1):37–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7

Author

Kiem, Anthony S. ; Johnson, Fiona ; Westra, Seth ; van Dijk, Albert ; Evans, Jason P. ; O’Donnell, Alison ; Rouillard, Alexandra ; Barr, Cameron ; Tyler, Jonathan ; Thyer, Mark ; Jakob, Doerte ; Woldemeskel, Fitsum ; Sivakumar, Bellie ; Mehrotra, Raj. / Natural hazards in Australia : droughts. In: Climatic Change. 2016 ; Vol. 139, No. 1. pp. 37–54.

Bibtex

@article{8c2f717a67ee4b6997a4896b0c5ed48e,
title = "Natural hazards in Australia: droughts",
abstract = "Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast and manage drought is exposed as insufficient whenever a drought occurs. This paper summarises what is known about drought hazard, as opposed to the impacts of drought, in Australia and finds that, unlike other hydroclimatic hazards, we currently have very limited ability to tell when a drought will begin or end. Understanding, defining, monitoring, forecasting and managing drought is also complex due to the variety of temporal and spatial scales at which drought occurs and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought. We argue that to improve understanding and management of drought, three key research challenges should be targeted: (1) defining and monitoring drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, start, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent) to remove confusion between drought causes, impacts and risks and better distinguish between drought, aridity, and water scarcity due to over-extractions; (2) documenting historical (instrumental and pre-instrumental) variation in drought to better understand baseline drought characteristics, enable more rigorous identification and attribution of drought events or trends, inform/evaluate hydrological and climate modelling activities and give insights into possible future drought scenarios; (3) improving the prediction and projection of drought characteristics with seasonal to multidecadal lead times and including more realistic modelling of the multiple factors that cause (or contribute to) drought so that the impacts of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change are accounted for and the reliability of long-term drought projections increases.",
keywords = "Attribution, Climate change, palaeoclimate, Climate variability, Drought, Hydrology, Water resources",
author = "Kiem, {Anthony S.} and Fiona Johnson and Seth Westra and {van Dijk}, Albert and Evans, {Jason P.} and Alison O{\textquoteright}Donnell and Alexandra Rouillard and Cameron Barr and Jonathan Tyler and Mark Thyer and Doerte Jakob and Fitsum Woldemeskel and Bellie Sivakumar and Raj Mehrotra",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7",
language = "English",
volume = "139",
pages = "37–54",
journal = "Climatic Change",
issn = "0165-0009",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Natural hazards in Australia

T2 - droughts

AU - Kiem, Anthony S.

AU - Johnson, Fiona

AU - Westra, Seth

AU - van Dijk, Albert

AU - Evans, Jason P.

AU - O’Donnell, Alison

AU - Rouillard, Alexandra

AU - Barr, Cameron

AU - Tyler, Jonathan

AU - Thyer, Mark

AU - Jakob, Doerte

AU - Woldemeskel, Fitsum

AU - Sivakumar, Bellie

AU - Mehrotra, Raj

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast and manage drought is exposed as insufficient whenever a drought occurs. This paper summarises what is known about drought hazard, as opposed to the impacts of drought, in Australia and finds that, unlike other hydroclimatic hazards, we currently have very limited ability to tell when a drought will begin or end. Understanding, defining, monitoring, forecasting and managing drought is also complex due to the variety of temporal and spatial scales at which drought occurs and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought. We argue that to improve understanding and management of drought, three key research challenges should be targeted: (1) defining and monitoring drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, start, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent) to remove confusion between drought causes, impacts and risks and better distinguish between drought, aridity, and water scarcity due to over-extractions; (2) documenting historical (instrumental and pre-instrumental) variation in drought to better understand baseline drought characteristics, enable more rigorous identification and attribution of drought events or trends, inform/evaluate hydrological and climate modelling activities and give insights into possible future drought scenarios; (3) improving the prediction and projection of drought characteristics with seasonal to multidecadal lead times and including more realistic modelling of the multiple factors that cause (or contribute to) drought so that the impacts of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change are accounted for and the reliability of long-term drought projections increases.

AB - Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast and manage drought is exposed as insufficient whenever a drought occurs. This paper summarises what is known about drought hazard, as opposed to the impacts of drought, in Australia and finds that, unlike other hydroclimatic hazards, we currently have very limited ability to tell when a drought will begin or end. Understanding, defining, monitoring, forecasting and managing drought is also complex due to the variety of temporal and spatial scales at which drought occurs and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought. We argue that to improve understanding and management of drought, three key research challenges should be targeted: (1) defining and monitoring drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, start, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent) to remove confusion between drought causes, impacts and risks and better distinguish between drought, aridity, and water scarcity due to over-extractions; (2) documenting historical (instrumental and pre-instrumental) variation in drought to better understand baseline drought characteristics, enable more rigorous identification and attribution of drought events or trends, inform/evaluate hydrological and climate modelling activities and give insights into possible future drought scenarios; (3) improving the prediction and projection of drought characteristics with seasonal to multidecadal lead times and including more realistic modelling of the multiple factors that cause (or contribute to) drought so that the impacts of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change are accounted for and the reliability of long-term drought projections increases.

KW - Attribution

KW - Climate change, palaeoclimate

KW - Climate variability

KW - Drought

KW - Hydrology

KW - Water resources

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84988350450&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7

DO - 10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:84988350450

VL - 139

SP - 37

EP - 54

JO - Climatic Change

JF - Climatic Change

SN - 0165-0009

IS - 1

ER -

ID: 168598569