TY - JOUR

T1 - The Importance of Incorporating Landscape Change for Predictions of Climate-Induced Plant Phenological Shifts

AU - Chisholm, Chelsea

AU - Becker, Michael S.

AU - Pollard, Wayne H.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - Warming in the high Arctic is occurring at the fastest rate on the planet, raising concerns over how this global change driver will influence plant community composition, the timing of vegetation phenological events, and the wildlife that rely on them. In this region, as much as 50% of near-surface permafrost is composed of thermally sensitive ground ice that when melted produces substantial changes in topography and microbiome conditions. We take advantage of natural variations in permafrost melt to conduct a space-for-time study on Ellesmere Island in northern Canada. We demonstrate that phenological timing can be delayed in thermokarst areas when compared to stable ground, and that this change is a function of shifting species composition in these vegetation communities as well as delayed timing within species. These findings suggest that a warming climate could result in an overall broadening of blooming and leafing windows at the landscape level when these delayed timings are taken into consideration with the projected advance of phenological timings in ice-poor areas. We emphasize that the impacts of geomorphic processes on key phenological drivers are essential for enhancing our understanding of community response to climate warming in the high Arctic, with implications for ecosystem functioning and trophic interactions.

AB - Warming in the high Arctic is occurring at the fastest rate on the planet, raising concerns over how this global change driver will influence plant community composition, the timing of vegetation phenological events, and the wildlife that rely on them. In this region, as much as 50% of near-surface permafrost is composed of thermally sensitive ground ice that when melted produces substantial changes in topography and microbiome conditions. We take advantage of natural variations in permafrost melt to conduct a space-for-time study on Ellesmere Island in northern Canada. We demonstrate that phenological timing can be delayed in thermokarst areas when compared to stable ground, and that this change is a function of shifting species composition in these vegetation communities as well as delayed timing within species. These findings suggest that a warming climate could result in an overall broadening of blooming and leafing windows at the landscape level when these delayed timings are taken into consideration with the projected advance of phenological timings in ice-poor areas. We emphasize that the impacts of geomorphic processes on key phenological drivers are essential for enhancing our understanding of community response to climate warming in the high Arctic, with implications for ecosystem functioning and trophic interactions.

KW - leaf phenology

KW - flower phenology

KW - permafrost

KW - geomorphology

KW - ground stability

KW - Arctic

KW - plant ecology

KW - ICE-WEDGE DEGRADATION

KW - GROUND ICE

KW - TUNDRA PLANTS

KW - PERMAFROST

KW - RESPONSES

KW - PATTERNS

KW - MISMATCH

KW - GROWTH

KW - VOLUME

KW - ISLAND

U2 - 10.3389/fpls.2020.00759

DO - 10.3389/fpls.2020.00759

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32670312

VL - 11

JO - Frontiers in Plant Science

JF - Frontiers in Plant Science

SN - 1664-462X

M1 - 759

ER -