TY - JOUR

T1 - The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity

T2 - a systematic review [incl. correction]

AU - Santos, Maria J.

AU - Smith, Adam B.

AU - Dekker, Stefan C.

AU - Eppinga, Maarten B.

AU - Leitão, Pedro J.

AU - Moreno-Mateos, David

AU - Morueta-Holme, Naia

AU - Ruggeri, Michael

N1 - Correction to: The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: a systematic review DOI: 10.1007/s10980-021-01332-5

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Context For many organisms, responses to climate change (CC) will be affected by land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC). However, the extent to which LULCC is concurrently considered in climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) is unclear. Objectives We identify trends in inclusion of LULCC and CC in vulnerability assessments of species and the direction and magnitude of their combined effect on biodiversity. Further, we examine the effect size of LULCC and CC in driving changes in "currencies" of response to CC, such as distribution, abundance and survival. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review of articles published in the last 30 years that focused on CCVA and accounted for impacts of both CC and LULCC. Results Across 116 studies, 34% assumed CC and LULCC would act additively, while 66% allowed for interactive effects. The majority of CCVAs reported similar effect sizes for CC and LULCC, although they affected different CCVA currencies. Only 14% of the studies showed larger effects of CC than of LULCC. Another 14% showed larger effects of LULCC than CC, specifically for dispersal, population viability, and reproduction, which tend to be strongly affected by fragmentation and disturbance. Although most studies found that LULCC and CC had negative effects on species currencies, in some cases effects were neutral or even positive. Conclusions CCVAs that incorporate LULCC provided a better account of drivers of vulnerability, and highlight aspects of drivers that are generally more amenable to on-the-ground management intervention than CCVAs that focus on CC alone.

AB - Context For many organisms, responses to climate change (CC) will be affected by land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC). However, the extent to which LULCC is concurrently considered in climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) is unclear. Objectives We identify trends in inclusion of LULCC and CC in vulnerability assessments of species and the direction and magnitude of their combined effect on biodiversity. Further, we examine the effect size of LULCC and CC in driving changes in "currencies" of response to CC, such as distribution, abundance and survival. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review of articles published in the last 30 years that focused on CCVA and accounted for impacts of both CC and LULCC. Results Across 116 studies, 34% assumed CC and LULCC would act additively, while 66% allowed for interactive effects. The majority of CCVAs reported similar effect sizes for CC and LULCC, although they affected different CCVA currencies. Only 14% of the studies showed larger effects of CC than of LULCC. Another 14% showed larger effects of LULCC than CC, specifically for dispersal, population viability, and reproduction, which tend to be strongly affected by fragmentation and disturbance. Although most studies found that LULCC and CC had negative effects on species currencies, in some cases effects were neutral or even positive. Conclusions CCVAs that incorporate LULCC provided a better account of drivers of vulnerability, and highlight aspects of drivers that are generally more amenable to on-the-ground management intervention than CCVAs that focus on CC alone.

KW - Species

KW - Climate change vulnerability assessment

KW - Currencies

KW - Methodologies

KW - Impact and effect

KW - HABITAT LOSS

KW - LANDSCAPE

KW - IMPACTS

KW - FUTURE

KW - DISTRIBUTIONS

KW - DISTURBANCE

KW - RESPONSES

KW - SCIENCE

KW - THREATS

KW - MODELS

UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01332-5

U2 - 10.1007/s10980-021-01276-w

DO - 10.1007/s10980-021-01276-w

M3 - Review

VL - 36

SP - 3367

EP - 3382

JO - Landscape Ecology

JF - Landscape Ecology

SN - 0921-2973

IS - 12

ER -