TY - JOUR

T1 - Ensemble forecasting shifts in climatically suitable areas for Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera: Acridoidea: Romaleidae)

AU - Diniz, J.A.F.

AU - Nabout, J.C.

AU - Bini, L.M.

AU - Loyola, R.D.

AU - Rangel, T.F.

AU - Nogues-Bravo, D.

AU - Bastos Araujo, Miguel

N1 - Times Cited: 4 WILEY-LISS DIV JOHN WILEY & SONS INC, 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN, NJ 07030 USA HOBOKEN Article 623KU English Cited References Count: 62 Univ Fed Goias, Dept Ecol, ICB, Cx P 131, BR-74001970 Goiania, Go, Brazil

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - 1. The effects of climate change on species' ranges have been usually inferred using niche-based models creating bioclimatic envelopes that are projected into geographical space. Here, we apply an ensemble forecasting approach for niche models in the Neotropical grasshopper Tropidacris cristata (Acridoidea: Romaleidae). A novel protocol was used to partition and map the variation in modelled ranges due to niche models, Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. 2. We used 112 records of T. cristata and four climatic variables to model the species' niche using five niche models, four AOGCMs and two emission scenarios. Combinations of these effects (50 cross-validations for each of the 15 subsets of the environmental variables) were used to estimate and map the occurrence frequencies (EOF) across all analyses. A three-way anova was used to partition and map the sources of variation. 3. The projections for 2080 show that the range edges of the species are likely to remain approximately constant, but shifts in maximum EOF are forecasted. Suitable climatic conditions tend to disappear from central areas of Amazon, although this depends on the AOGCM and the niche model. Most of the variability around the mapped consensus projections came from using distinct niche models and AOGCMs. 4. Although our analyses are restricted to a single species, they provide new conceptual and methodological insights in the application of ensemble forecasting and variance partition approaches to understand the origins of uncertainty in studies assessing species responses to climate change in the tropics

AB - 1. The effects of climate change on species' ranges have been usually inferred using niche-based models creating bioclimatic envelopes that are projected into geographical space. Here, we apply an ensemble forecasting approach for niche models in the Neotropical grasshopper Tropidacris cristata (Acridoidea: Romaleidae). A novel protocol was used to partition and map the variation in modelled ranges due to niche models, Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. 2. We used 112 records of T. cristata and four climatic variables to model the species' niche using five niche models, four AOGCMs and two emission scenarios. Combinations of these effects (50 cross-validations for each of the 15 subsets of the environmental variables) were used to estimate and map the occurrence frequencies (EOF) across all analyses. A three-way anova was used to partition and map the sources of variation. 3. The projections for 2080 show that the range edges of the species are likely to remain approximately constant, but shifts in maximum EOF are forecasted. Suitable climatic conditions tend to disappear from central areas of Amazon, although this depends on the AOGCM and the niche model. Most of the variability around the mapped consensus projections came from using distinct niche models and AOGCMs. 4. Although our analyses are restricted to a single species, they provide new conceptual and methodological insights in the application of ensemble forecasting and variance partition approaches to understand the origins of uncertainty in studies assessing species responses to climate change in the tropics

KW - Climate change

KW - ensemble forecasting

KW - niche models

KW - Orthoptera

KW - Tropidacris

KW - variance partition

KW - SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE

KW - GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS

KW - EXTINCTION RISK

KW - RANGE SHIFTS

KW - NICHE

KW - PREDICTION

KW - UNCERTAINTIES

KW - BIODIVERSITY

KW - PROJECTIONS

U2 - 10.1111/j.1752-4598.2010.00090.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1752-4598.2010.00090.x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 3

SP - 213

EP - 221

JO - Insect Conservation and Diversity

JF - Insect Conservation and Diversity

SN - 1752-458X

IS - 3

ER -