Evaluation and re-understanding of the global natural gas hydrate resources
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Evaluation and re-understanding of the global natural gas hydrate resources. / Pang, Xiong Qi; Chen, Zhuo Heng; Jia, Cheng Zao; Wang, En Ze; Shi, He Sheng; Wu, Zhuo Ya; Hu, Tao; Liu, Ke Yu; Zhao, Zheng Fu; Pang, Bo; Wang, Tong.
In: Petroleum Science, Vol. 18, 2021, p. 323–338.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluation and re-understanding of the global natural gas hydrate resources
AU - Pang, Xiong Qi
AU - Chen, Zhuo Heng
AU - Jia, Cheng Zao
AU - Wang, En Ze
AU - Shi, He Sheng
AU - Wu, Zhuo Ya
AU - Hu, Tao
AU - Liu, Ke Yu
AU - Zhao, Zheng Fu
AU - Pang, Bo
AU - Wang, Tong
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Natural gas hydrate (NGH) has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973. At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far, among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources. If drawn in chronological order, the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend, reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time. A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend. The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46 × 1012 m3 at the year of 2050. The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10% of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir, consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources (TRR) in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches. Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources, only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply. It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.
AB - Natural gas hydrate (NGH) has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973. At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far, among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources. If drawn in chronological order, the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend, reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time. A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend. The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46 × 1012 m3 at the year of 2050. The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10% of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir, consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources (TRR) in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches. Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources, only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply. It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.
KW - Conventional oil and gas resource
KW - Global gas hydrate resource
KW - Natural gas hydrate
KW - Renewable and sustainable energy
KW - Trend analysis method
U2 - 10.1007/s12182-021-00568-9
DO - 10.1007/s12182-021-00568-9
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85103359713
VL - 18
SP - 323
EP - 338
JO - Petroleum Science
JF - Petroleum Science
SN - 1672-5107
ER -
ID: 260031272