TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential for invasion of traded birds under climate and land-cover change

AU - Naimi, Babak

AU - Capinha, César

AU - Ribeiro, Joana

AU - Rahbek, Carsten

AU - Strubbe, Diederik

AU - Reino, Luís

AU - Araújo, Miguel B.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover change on their potential end-of-century distributions. We found that climate-induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is ‘tropicalizing.’ Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental invasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low-latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land-cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increasing chances of alien species successfully invading non-native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

AB - Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover change on their potential end-of-century distributions. We found that climate-induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is ‘tropicalizing.’ Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental invasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low-latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land-cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increasing chances of alien species successfully invading non-native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

KW - biological invasions

KW - CITES

KW - climate change

KW - land use change traded birds

KW - risk analysis

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.16310

DO - 10.1111/gcb.16310

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 35849042

AN - SCOPUS:85135051991

VL - 28

SP - 5654

EP - 5666

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 19

ER -