Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation
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Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. / Fordham, Damien A.; Brown, Stuart C.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit; Brook, Barry W.; Haythorne, Sean; Manica, Andrea; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Austin, Jeremy J.; Blonder, Benjamin; Pilowsky, Julia; Rahbek, Carsten; Nogues-Bravo, David.
In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 25, No. 1, 2021, p. 125-137.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation
AU - Fordham, Damien A.
AU - Brown, Stuart C.
AU - Akçakaya, H. Reşit
AU - Brook, Barry W.
AU - Haythorne, Sean
AU - Manica, Andrea
AU - Shoemaker, Kevin T.
AU - Austin, Jeremy J.
AU - Blonder, Benjamin
AU - Pilowsky, Julia
AU - Rahbek, Carsten
AU - Nogues-Bravo, David
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.
AB - Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.
KW - climate change
KW - ecological process
KW - extinction dynamics
KW - mechanistic model
KW - megafauna
KW - metapopulation
KW - Pleistocene-Holocene transition
KW - population model
KW - range dynamics
KW - synergistic threats
U2 - 10.1111/ele.13911
DO - 10.1111/ele.13911
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 34738712
AN - SCOPUS:85118482950
VL - 25
SP - 125
EP - 137
JO - Ecology Letters
JF - Ecology Letters
SN - 1461-023X
IS - 1
ER -
ID: 285249650