Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network
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Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. / Hole, David G; Willis, Stephen G; Pain, Deborah J; Fishpool, Lincoln D; Butchart, Stuart H M; Collingham, Yvonne C; Rahbek, Carsten; Huntley, Brian.
In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 12, No. 5, 2009, p. 420-31.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network
AU - Hole, David G
AU - Willis, Stephen G
AU - Pain, Deborah J
AU - Fishpool, Lincoln D
AU - Butchart, Stuart H M
AU - Collingham, Yvonne C
AU - Rahbek, Carsten
AU - Huntley, Brian
N1 - Keywords: Africa South of the Sahara; Animals; Birds; Conservation of Natural Resources; Demography; Ecosystem; Geography; Greenhouse Effect; Models, Theoretical; Species Specificity
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent's Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88-92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in >or= 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7-8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.
AB - Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent's Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88-92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in >or= 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7-8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.
U2 - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01297.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01297.x
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 19379136
VL - 12
SP - 420
EP - 431
JO - Ecology Letters
JF - Ecology Letters
SN - 1461-023X
IS - 5
ER -
ID: 18786961